Feb. 15th Bubble Watch: Where do the Bonnies Stand?

Jay Adams and his teammates have BonaNation hoping for an NCAA bid for the first time since 2012.

Six games to go.

The Bonnies have played 23 games, over 920 minutes of basketball and are now down to their last half dozen games before getting a chance to punch their ticket, automatically, in Brooklyn.

With Schmidt’s team riding a five game winning streak and coming off an impressive, and ultra-important home win over George Washington, the fan-base is in a frenzy. For the first time in the Mark Schmidt era, it is plausible and realistic, to consider the Bonnies a true bubble team.

Yes, this team is much more on the bubble than the 2012 squad was in February (On Feb. 15th 2012 the Nicholson-led Bonnies were 13-10 and 6-5). Being on the bubble in mid-February is both exciting and nerve-wracking. 

Something this fan base isn’t used to, but will gladly deal with.

So, where do the Bonnies stand now according to various experts? Take a look below and feel free to click the links under my take.

What do I think the Bonnies need to do to make the field via an at-large berth? With nearly a month left in the season there’s so many variables that it makes guessing really difficult. So many teams above and below us on these lines that need to lose games to help us out. But if I had to make a prediction here’s what I’d say.

  • SBU MUST beat either Dayton or St. Joe’s…and preferably, they’d beat both. We only have two quality wins according to experts (St. Joe’s and GW, URI is now eh) and could use at least two more.
  • SBU CANNOT lose any other game on the schedule. What games are those? @ La Salle, vs. Duquesne, vs. UMass and @ St. Louis. These games would each fall under a “bad loss” column and really crush SBU’s chances of getting an at-large. Lose any of those and I’d have to say the Bonnies may be cooked.
  • IF the Bonnies can win five of their last six and finish 22-7, they would have a bye in Brooklyn. From there, I would guess the Bonnies would need to win AT LEAST one game (Friday) and play in the semi-finals on Saturday.
  • But hey, we’re all just guessing at this point. 

To the experts….

Joe Lunardi, the Godfather himself, has the Bonnies as a “Next Out” in today’s projections. 

Who does Lunardi have listed as the teams above us? Alabama, Washington, Butler and Clemson. The teams also listed with SBU as ‘Next Out” are Texas Tech, Tulsa and Oregon State. So, if you’re looking for teams to root against over the next three weeks or so these are team. SBU is going to need help to leap a half dozen teams, and these clubs losing would certainly help. Who are the last four in? Vandy, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s and Florida State…also hope those guys lose games down the stretch. 

CBS Sports Says the Bonnies have “Work to Do” and aren’t even in the first or next four out. 

CBS’s Jerry Palm says this of the Bonnies, “The Bonnies, like most of the other teams on this list, did not distinguish itself in non-league play and is trying to make up for it now. A home win over Ohio is their lone top 100 non-conference win. St. Bonaventure has won five in a row and will have to keep rolling to push into the bracket.” I’ll add this: Palm has VCU under the Bonnies with “Work to Do” yet Lunardi has them easily in as a 10 seed. I have no idea how VCU could not be in, so that omission gives me pause about Palm’s projections…but I don’t get paid to do that for a living so I’m assuming he has his reasons.

USA Today says the Bonnies are one of the First Four out

TeamRankings.com thinks SBU would be a 12 seed, but give the Bonnies just a 49% chance of an at-large berth and a 56% chance of a bid overall. 

Categories: Editorial


  1. Lunardi has Pitt in as an 11 seed. Pitt is probably on the outs right now, and the way they are playing will probably soon lock themselves out for certain. They are not that talented and are not playing well. Don’t jump to a conclusion based on rep or recent history.

  2. I would feel safe with winning 4 out of our last 6, plus 1 in the A10 Tourney. That would make a record of 22-9.

    Even if we lose to Dayton and St. Joes, the tourney win would likely be against the A10 5 seed, thus counting as another quality win (being a win on a neutral court also helps).

    I think Bona could still get in even without a conference tournament win, That would likely require beating Dayton or St. Joes.

    We might be able to make up for a “bad loss,” but in no way can we lose against LaSalle. Then there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

  3. In case the above looks confusing, basically I would say that we need at least 1 win against Dayton, St. Joes, or in the quarterfinals of the A10 tourney. A loss to UMASS, Duquesne, or St. Louis may not be the end, but losing to LaSalle certainly would be.

    Overall ,I think 23 wins and we are a lock, 22 wins we are likely in, 21 wins we are out (unless we win at Dayton).

    I am not an expert; I just play one on the internet.

  4. Josh: I think that analysis is spot on. If we can win four of our remaining six games, and reach the a10 finals I think we are in. Or, if we win 5 of our last 6 games, which would include a win over st. Joe’s or Dayton, and reach the A10 semis I think we are in. If, by some miracle, we are able to run the table the last 6 regular season games, I think we will be in regardless of what happens in Brooklyn.

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