Preseason Predictions

As is our annual tradition we are ready to roll out this year’s edition of staff predictions. Coming of the heartbreaking NCAA snub of last spring, the Bonnies seem to have quickly reloaded on paper. Can this group manage to get over the hump without Marcus Posley and Dion Wright? Will the transfers make an immediate and significant impact? Can the Bonnies avoid a bad loss in the non-conference? We will tackle those questions are more below using our staff as well as some help from outsiders as well. Enjoy.

Name: Ryan Lazo, NY Post

Quick Take: Last year’s run to the Atlantic 10 Conference Regular Season title was a surprise. This time, the Bonnies won’t be sneaking up on anyone. On paper, this has the looks of one of the most talented teams during head coach Mark Schmidt’s tenure. Even with the loss of scoring guard Marcus Posley, Bona seems to already have replacements ready to fill the void.

Don’t discount the effect Courtney Stockard could have on this year’s team. The JUCO transfer was spoken highly of by Schmidt before last year began — a rarity in his time in Olean — and should be an immediate starter. Division I transfer Matt Mobley was a scoring machine at Central Connecticut State. An athletic wing who attacks the basket could be exactly what Bona needs when the inevitable scoring slump occurs. Add in the likely improvements of Preseason First Team All-Conference Selection Jaylen Adams and Sixth Man of the Year Denzel Gregg, Bona certainly has the talent to be among the elite of the conference.

However, questions do persist. Do the Bonnies have enough front line depth? Syracuse transfer Chinonso Obokoh and Liberty transfer David Andoh need to give Bona 20 minutes a game. Can Mobley and Stockard excel in the rigorous Atlantic 10 Conference? Last year, Bona won five games by five or less points during the A-10 slate and only two likely starters (Idris Taqee and Adams) remain from that veteran group. Additionally, Bona won a program-record 14 A-10 games last year. To expect a repeat is unlikely, but it has the possibility of happening.

After being one of the first teams left out of the tournament, Bona will make its second trip to the NCAA Tournament over the last five years. Bona’s non-conference schedule — while not eye-popping — gives them opportunities to both pad the win total and pick up key wins over teams like Florida, UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra. Additionally, the rise in the overall talent in the A-10 should help Bona when it comes to RPI, ultimately leading to an NCAA appearance.

Non-Conference Record: 9-3

Conference Record: 12-6

Postseason Berth? NCAA

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Name: Ian Nolan, BonaBlog

Quick Take: Being a long suffering Mets and Bonnies fan I’m rarely bullish or openly optimistic about my teams but I do feel that way about this year’s Bonaventure club. There’s no doubt that the losses of Posley and Wright are tough voids to overcome, but thanks to Schmidt this year’s team seems to have capable replacements at the ready up and down the roster. Schmidt has said he feels that Matt Mobley can step in for Posley from day one, and though no one will likely be as productive as a single player as Wright was, the Bonnies have a cast of bigs they feel strongly about to fill Dion’s void as a group. Even with the looming loss of Courtney Stockard, this roster should be good enough to contend for a top five spot in the A10 come January. 

Schmidt’s club played incredibly efficient and productive basketball from an offense standpoint (39th nationally) last year and while I do expect them to take a step back in that area, I think they’ll be better defensively (181st). The addition of a rim proctor like Chinoso Obokoh could prove extremely valuable on the defensive end and Schmidt sounds quietly optimistic about freshman forward Josh Ayeni as well. I’m confident that Kaputo and Gregg will be more consistent this season and if Schmidt can receive immediate production from the new faces, the Bonnies will hit the ground running in conference play. SBU was incredible at closing out close games a year ago, and ranked 6th nationally in FT%; both of which will be very hard to repeat. I think this year’s club will be very solid, but it’s  tough seeing them with a better “resume” than they sported last March because of all those close wins. 

Non-Conference Record: 9-3

Conference Record: 11-7

Postseason Berth? NIT

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Name: Vinny Pezzimenti, BonaBlog
 
Quick Take: We — or at least I – undersold the Bonnies last year. I fear that we may oversell them this season. It feels like anything less than a return to the NIT will be a disappointment. Such aspirations may be unreasonable and even unfair for a team that returns only 3 ½ rotation players (Nelson Kaputo counted as the ½) and welcomes seven new scholarship players. The play of Marcus Posley and Dion Wright spoke for itself. The graduated seniors literally willed the Bonnies to a handful of A-10 victories that they probably shouldn’t have won. They will be missed and tough to replace. Sure, Matt Mobley, David Andoh, Courtney Stockard and Chinonso Obokoh are experienced and talented, but how will all these new moving parts meld together? Jay Adams is emerging as one of the top lead guards in the country, but the frontcourt is still thin. Other questions persist. Another 20-win season is in reach for the Bonnies, but this year may be a bridge campaign to bigger and better things in 2017-18.
 
Non-Conference Record: 9-3
 
Conference Record: 11-7
 
Postseason Berth? NIT

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Name: Kyle Allan, Student Contributor 

Quick Take: Finally, the Bonnies come into the season with an understandable pre-season ranking at #5 overall in the Atlantic 10. There is no reason as to why this team can be a Top 3 team in the league. For one, they are coming off a three-way tie for 1st place in the Atlantic 10 standings. They have a Preseason All-First Team selection in Jaylen Adams, as well as a player in Matt Mobley who is predicted to make a big scoring impact as a transfer player. For now, I am okay with being picked 5th overall. 
 
Besides, this team usually plays better when they are overlooked. 
 
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
 
Conference Record: 13-5
 
Postseason Berth? NCAA Tournament: This team will make a run in the Atlantic 10 tournament. After leaving a sour taste last year in Brooklyn, they want revenge. Going into the A-10s at 23-7 the Bonnies will be on the border of getting in again. This year, they will win a few games to force the committee to put them on the right side of the bubble. 
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Name: Jonathan May, Contributor 
 
Quick Take/Blurb: On paper the Bonnies look like favorites in all but perhaps one non-conference game. Starting A10 play with one, maybe two losses combined with  a higher than usual pre-season ranking will have the Bonnies being the hunted rather than the hunter. How will Mark Schmidt and company adjust to their new role? Most likely well, transfers with experience and home grown talent taking another step forward all add up to make the Bonnies dangerous club yet again. But not good enough to get them into the NCAAs or NIT. 
 
Non-Conference Record: 10-2
 
Conference Record: 10-8
 
Postseason Berth? None/CBI/CIT if Bonas is willing to pay.
 
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Name:  Walter Stubbs, Alumni Contributor 
 
Quick Take:  Coach Schmidt and his staff usually come up with a  quote before the season starts and use it for incentive for the season ahead. This year’s motto should be “Not Again” or “Not Happening Again”, depending if it costs more for more lettering on the Adidas shirts.  After being snubbed by the NCAA Selection committee last year, this year’s team should have no problem having a little bit of a chip on its shoulder, led by PG Jay Adams.  The out of conference schedule is once again a little light in heavyweights, but does appear a tad tougher than last year, with the tournament in Austin fielding a few good mid major teams.  The Bonnies do get a bit of a break in playing the University of Florida outside the friendly confines of the O’Connell Center, which is under construction and won’t be available to them until conference play.  Playing in Lakeland Florida might benefit the Bonnies, who might need a quality out of conference win to get the respect of the committee. 
 
With Adams coming off an impressive summer playing against some of the best players in Division 1 and the addition of transfer Matt Mobley to the backcourt, the Bonnies once again should be contending for a post season berth.  The difference between an NCAA appearance and an NIT could be the play of Denzel Gregg, who could make the step to consistent double digit scorer,  and Syracuse transfer Chinonso Obokoh and how fast he gets acclimated to Schmidt’s system.  His defensive presence and rebounding will be a key to the Bonnies success. 
 
Non Conference Record: 10-2
 
Conference Record: 12-6
 
Post Season Berth?  Yes.  22-8 will get you a berth in the post season.  However, a win in the A10 Tourney might be mandatory to get you the NCAA berth.  23-9 would do it. 
 
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Name: Chuckie Maggio

Quick Take: The Bonnies’ success this season is obviously going to have a lot to do with how the transfers adapt to the Atlantic 10. All reports and indications are that Matt Mobley and Courtney Stockard are capable of being among the league leaders in scoring, and David Andoh and Chinonso Obokoh are certainly built enough to be major threats down low. I’m looking forward to that first tipoff to see what Bona has in game action. We all know what guys like Adams, Gregg and Taqqee can do.

Non-conference Record: 10-2

Conference Record: 12-6

Postseason Berth? NCAA Tournament

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Name: Mike Morgan, Bona Blog Contributor

Quick Take: This is a really interesting year for the Bonnies. After being snubbed by the NCAA committee and laying an egg against Wagner, SBU could be out to make a statement. On paper, it might be difficult with the graduation of two of their top 4 scorers. The return of Jaylen Adams and a continued emergence of Denzel Gregg could hopefully balance out those losses. As mentioned before, the Bonnies aren’t a surprise anymore and will continue to contend in the Atlantic 10. The coaches have selected them 5th and they realize how dangerous this group can be. Contending for a tourney bye and with the tournament being so close in Pittsburgh, we may be able to see another magical year.

Non-Conference Record: 9-3

Conference Record: 10-8

Postseason Berth? The Bonnies haven’t shown a desire to play in anything but the NCAA Tournament or NIT. While a CBI or CIT berth might help the program look good, they aren’t willing to pay the buy-in. I’d say the Bonnies have a decent shot at making the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament. It depends on which games they win. I do think they will put up wins – they just need to be the right ones. Beating the teams they are supposed too will not get the job done.