“Bye Bye Bye”
It has been well documented that the Bonnies are off to their hottest start in nearly two decades. In spite of the additional press, the always humble and grounded Coach Schmidt has been adamant that his players must not become complacent with their success thus far. With 14 Atlantic 10 games still left to the play, things are about to pick up; and so too is the competition. The Bonnies have taken care of business in their first 4 games, but the next 5 will present the team with their toughest stretch to date. Tomorrow’s road contest at the always tough Palumbo Center (where the Dukes have lost just once in eight tries) is followed by games vs Dayton (3-1), at VCU (4-0), vs Richmond (2-2) and then at SJU (3-1). Coming into the season I pegged the Bonnie’s to win just one of these games (Duquesne). But today, as I sit at my desk watching the market tank (having its worst week since 2009) I’m ‘bullish’ on the Bonnies! This team is built differently than most I have seen in my 10 years a fan. Our talented back-court and blue collar boys on the blocks have got me all sorts of excited. Something special is brewing in Olean and it’s not just the Allegheny IPA down at the new Four Mile Brewing Company.
So with 14 games remaining of the schedule, I wanted to take a look at some historical data to see what we need to do to secure a first round bye in Brooklyn. Over the past decade since the conference left the East/West alignment, there have been 13/14 and 16 team configurations. The number of conference games played has also varied, for comparative purposes I took a look at winning percentage as the equalizer. Click here Bye Analysis
If the numbers hold true, the Bonnies will need to finish 12-6 in conference play to have a good shot at a first round bye (ie. tie breaker scenarios). That means over the remaining 14 games, the Bonnies need to go 8-6. This seems like a very reasonable expectation. In fact, Ken Pom has the Bonnies finishing 15-3!