They Are Who We Thought They Were

Tweet

A few short weeks ago Bonnies fans looked forward to, or maybe dreaded this current stretch of games. Schmidt’s boys were 4-0 in the league, there was talk of a top 25 appearance, and, at the time, there was no reason not to think the team shouldn’t be aiming for a top four finish, and a bye in the conference tournament.

This stretch of games would make, or break the season, in terms of building a resume for a March NCAA berth.   

However, after stumbling on the road at Duquesne, failing to beat Dayton at home in front of a packed house and blowing a nine point second half lead at VCU, the Bonnies are 4-3 in the league. Reality set in. 

What a difference three games and 120 minutes of basketball can make.

Really though, the results shouldn’t come as a shock to Bonnies fans. The team was basically even money playing at Duquesne (a place where Mark Schmidt is now 2-8, if memory serves me). Dayton has now turned aside the Brown and White in 15 of the last 16 meetings. And VCU very rarely loses at home and was riding a league best winning streak.  

So for those fans who tossed their brown cap on the ground after the VCU game ended and said something along the lines of, “this team stinks”- they don’t. They don’t stink, but they were never a borderline top 25 team. They were never going to compete with Dayton, VCU or GW for the league title. You may have thought they were because they beat a short-handed Davidson team, downed two cellar dwellers in Mason and UMass, and topped a URI team who can’t finish a game and has a total of one, count it one, road win. 

As is the key so often in being a sports fan, a sense of perspective and even-keeled-ness is vital. Fans (myself included) can get too up and down with wins and losses. Winning streaks, and losing streaks (like the one we’re in now) tend to magnify those feelings of optimism or pessimism. 

Facts often help navigate between what is real, and what is hoped for.

Here are some numbers.

The Bonnies are 12-6. Their best win of the season came at home against URI (77, using KenPom metrics). Aside from URI, the team’s best win came against Davidson (129). Their top road win was against Buffalo (162). Their current RPI is 78. Strength of schedule is 133. Their non-conference strength of schedule was 211th. They are 1-5 against the top 100.

In a league that will likely get three teams in (who knows, maybe four) the Bonnies are already 0-2 vs. those clubs and still need to play St. Joe’s twice, visit Dayton and host GW. Those are four more games vs. the top 100 where SBU hasn’t found success. 

Next up the club hosts a Richmond team that dismantled them twice last year (82), goes to shockingly good St. Joe’s (49) before battling lowly St. Louis and Fordham, who aren’t that bad at all. The road doesn’t get much easier, but that’s life inside the A10. That’s why those screaming for 20 win seasons to evolve at the snap of their finger need to survey the landscape a bit. This league is insanely competitive. Winning a dozen games inside the A10 is incredibly difficult and almost always involves beating really good teams at home and on the road.

This post isn’t to say the team isn’t any good. They are good…well, I’m confident in saying they are decent, and have the potential to be really good. I know they’ll beat some of those top 100 teams, certain of it. I also know they’ll lose to one or two of those bottom-feeders too…because that’s what decent teams do. They win some, they lose some. This is a decent team. Decent college basketball teams win between 16-18ish games. That’s what I said about this team in the fall and that’s what I still expect from this team.

This post is to provide a small dose of reality for those diehards who still think the team could be ticketed for the NCAA field. Not to put down the roster or throw shade on the club. We are as diehard as they come. But in this post, we feel inclined to provide a dose of reality.

While anything can happen, and it did in 2012, this team’s fans should be realistically hoping for an NIT berth. Something Mark Schmidt has never accomplished. If I had told fans in October this team would make the NIT I’d bet over 85% would have signed up for the season. But after four wins to start league play, some folks’ expectations got a bit unrealistic.

The Bonnies are who we thought they were. A team with three really good players, a great back court, a nothing front court (save Dion Wright) and no depth to speak of. Those teams don’t win regular season league titles. They can beat anyone, but they could lose to just about anyone as well. Those types of teams are picked to finish in the middle of the pack because their flaws and shortcomings are noticeable and real. 

Just remember what the coaching staff, and players are fighting against when demanding they make the NCAA field because they won a few games in January.