Who do you want to play? A-10 Tournament scenarios for the Bonnies

With two games remaining in the regular season, the Bonnies can finish no lower than ninth and no better than seventh in the Atlantic. Most likely, they will finish eighth or ninth and be matched up against La Salle at noon on Thursday, March 12 in the conference tournament.

SBU, currently in eighth-place at 8-8, closes with very winnable games at Saint Louis and home to Fordham. Let’s take a look at some A-10 tournament scenarios:

The Bonnies finish seventh if:

  • They win their last two AND George Washington (seventh-place at 8-8) loses either at home to George Mason or at Massachusetts.
  • They win one of their last two AND GW loses its last two.

The Bonnies finish eighth if:

  • They win their last two AND George Washington wins their last two.
  • They win one of their last two AND La Salle (ninth-place at 7-9) loses either at home against Saint Joseph’s or at Dayton.
  • They lose their last two AND La Salle loses its last two.

The Bonnies finish ninth if:

  • They win one of their last two AND La Salle wins both of their last two.
  • They lose both of their last two AND La Salle wins one of their last two.

Edit to add:

Thanks to the diligent work of SBU alum Jeff Madigan, it was realized that the Bonnies can finish sixth, though it will take an act of God.

Ideally, the Bonnies would face Saint Joseph’s, whom they have beaten twice already. The Hawks can still move into ninth, but they will likely finish 10th and face the seventh-seed.

The Bonnies lost to La Salle at home and were trampled at GW this past week. I would give SBU the edge in a rematch against La Salle but not against GW.

What do you think is the best case A-10 tournament scenario for the Bonnies? Comment below.

Looking ahead to a possible quarterfinal matchup, ideally the Bonnies would meet either Davidson or Rhode Island and avoid Dayton or VCU.

Dayton, Davidson and URI are tied atop the standings at 12-4. VCU is 11-5. The mess at the top will be sorted out this week.

The winner of the 7-10 game meets the No. 2 seed while the 8-9 winner meets No. 1.

The Bonnies have been hammered twice by Dayton, lost a close game at URI, won at Davidson (on a buzzer-beater), and used another buzzer-beater to top VCU (without leading scorer and rebounder Treveon Graham) at an amped-up Reilly Center.

URI has many young and inexperienced players and could be vulnerable in the tournament setting. The Bonnies won at Davidson, so they should possesses the confidence to beat the Wildcats again.

Sorry, but I can’t envision SBU victories against Dayton or VCU at full strength on a neutral floor. Try to convince me otherwise in the comments section below.