Recon: Duquesne Dukes (w Blogger Q and A)

The Opponent: The 6-10 (1-4) Duquesne Dukes. Duquesne may only have one A10 win but they’ve nearly beaten both VCU and URI at home. They’ve also played Dayton so three of their four losses have come against the upper third of the league. This team is not as bad as their record and this game will be a nice road test.

The Rundown: The Duquesne game in Pittsburgh is always a tough one, not just for our Bonnies but for most A10 teams. I’m not going to go back and track some of the big wins they’ve scored in the Steel City but I believe they got SLU last year (or maybe the year before) and before that they got Xavier when they were awesome and the Dukes stunk. Like I stated above this year’s version of the Dukes lost to URI by 1 (and should have won) and lost to VCU by 6 and were right there with a minute to play. So, this game is by NO means a likely win for the Brown and White. Duquesne’s club this year is much like year’s before- they play faster, they score, they are somewhat deep, they don’t rebound really well and they don’t defend really well. With SBU being on a two game road trip (URI next this weekend) this would be a very nice win to send the Schmidt Heads to 4-2. If that happens even a loss at URI puts us over .500 through seven games which is solid ground.

What They Do Well: Score and shoot it from 3PT and 2PT. Duquesne scores 70.9 points (107th) and do so via shooting 35.8% from three (104th) and 50.1% from 2PT (85th). They’ve always been a team capable of getting really hot and filling it up. Micah Mason led the nation in 3PT shooting last year and is shooting 42% this season. Not impressed?  Fellow guard Derrick Colter is shooting an absurd 52% from deep.   Duquesne’s guards can shoot them to wins or shoot them out of it on any game. I’d say I’m a little worried about this but maybe I’m not…we give up tons of three pointers anyway, so this game will be nothing new if Duquesne hits 10 three balls. We had to overcome that against St. Joe’s. Bottom line, expect Duquesne to shoot the ball well and expect us to have to win in spite of that happening. Holding them to say 33% shooting from three would be a win but if they get up 30 three pointers (possible) that’s still roughly 30 points off deep balls and that’s a lot to overcome.

What They Don’t Do Well: For as solid as they are at making shots they cannot make their FTs (59.9%, 347th worst) and that’s killed them. If we’re trailing late I’d hope and expect us to hack their players and force them to make FTs. Shooting under 60% from the line is abomination. If we’re in a nip and tuck game with them in the last few minutes you can expect Duquesne to leave the door open for some baskets. They’re also 283rd nationally in defending the three point line so they’ll give Posley and Jay all the looks they need, it’s just a matter of our guards knocking them down. If you could make say one three pointer for every one and a half they make you’d be in good shape. They’re 286th in points allowed so as you’d expect scoring against them is not the issue it’s outscoring them.

What I Fear: Obviously I fear Bonas making the Dukes an even better three point shooting team than they are and losing this one. We can win if we give up three pointers but defending like we did against St. Joe’s would be playing with fire. If we knock down more of our tries from deep, it will help neutralize their strength. Remember they like to push the pace in a BIG way (21st fastest possessions nationally) so making shots is the best way to get back on defense. Transition defense and stopping the ball will be critical.

		SBU			DUQ
		W	L		W	L
2013 - 2014		18	15		13	17
2012 - 2013		14	15		8	22
2011 - 2012		21	12		16	15
2010 - 2011		16	15		19	13
2009 - 2010		15	16		16	16
2008 - 2009		15	15		21	14
2007 - 2008		8	22		17	13
		107	110		110	110

1. Keep the made three pointers number within four.

2. Win the rebounding battle and clean up the defensive glass issues from the SJU game (16 offensive boards).

3. Play great transition defense, limiting fast-break points and runouts off missed shots.

1. Duquesne is 1-4 but has played some quality teams already and nearly beat VCU and URI. So, at 6-10 is this team a lot better than their record or something else?

2. We know the Dukes shoot it from 3 well and can score in spurts, but what else do they do well?

The Dukes have been very inconsistent from three, but it’s not too far above their ability to get hot and go off for better than 50%. I don’t need to tell many A-10 fans at this point that Micah Mason led the country in three point shooting last season, but they may not know that Derrick Colter is right up there this year as well.

I don’t know if there is anything else that the team does particularly well, but there are some areas where they’re getting better. They look decent in transition and I think they’re getting closer to the way Ferry wants them to play on the break. They’ve been getting to the free throw line more and more even if they haven’t been making their shots. They’re getting better on the defensive glass and the 2-3 zone they’ve employed has gone from awful to simply bad.

3. What do the Dukes NEED to do to win Thursday night against the Bonnies?

They need to make their shots, attack the rim and get the Bonnies front line in foul trouble. They also need to clear the defensive glass. The Bonnies will get their makes. It’s the nature of the beast for this Duquesne team, but if the Dukes are defending well enough to stop the first shot, they need to grab the rebound and get running.

4. Duquesne is really deep (10 guys play at least nine minutes a game) and the Bonnies are as thin as it gets. Would you expect this to be a major factor having watching all the Dukes games?

The Dukes have gone with a more veteran lineup and shorter bench of late playing three junior guards and a senior Dominique McKoy for 30 plus minutes a game barring foul trouble. They started the year running out a ton of players but really only 7 have played more than 10 minutes consistently the last few weeks.

I don’t think Duquesne will run the Bonnies ragged. Where the Dukes depth might come into play is with fouls. If we see a tight game like we did the last time  St Bonaventure came to Pittsburgh, we should see a similar result.

5. Duquesne is a program much like the Bonnies (In my mind anyway) but have lagged behind in terms of improvements even with Ferry. How confident are you in him as head coach and what’s the light at the end of the tunnel with this team? Are you optimistic or not?

I don’t actually think Duquesne is much like St. Bonaventure at all. It’s an urban campus with twice the undergraduate population, four times the total number of students, triple the endowment and a 75% larger operating budget for basketball. While the main basketball gyms are comparable, the Dukes have an NBA - caliber arena in their back pocket as well as training facilities and locker rooms that have all been upgraded in the last five years. The only things they have in common is the conference, religion, their history together, and that they’ve mostly been miserable for the last 30 years. Truthfully, Duquesne is in a much better position to be successful athletically than St. Bonaventure, yet they haven’t been recently, at least not in men’s basketball.

I’m not as down on Ferry as many are, but I wouldn’t call myself optimistic or pessimistic. I’d call myself patient.  Truth is, the Dukes best chances of winning in the short-run are statistically with Ferry at the helm. I don’t think they can cut bait with him right now, but if the team struggles again next year, he and AD Greg Amodio could be on the chopping block. That said, his teams’ have struggled to defend and have looked woefully unprepared to start the season each of the last two years. He seems to play for the future until the season is lost and then makes short term adjustments to win  games now that no longer mean much. There are some concerning trends, but I do think he has decent at worst coaching chops and a good staff. He’s also beaten a few teams his team had no business even playing with, like West Virginia and Temple his first year and St Louis last season.

Jim Ferry’s transition system is based on the team taking down defensive rebounds and getting out on the break. Problem is, the Dukes poor defense leads to more made baskets by the opponents and fewer opportunities to rebound and run. I’ve never read Catch - 22, but I don’t feel badly referencing it here.

7. Prediction for the game?

I don’t make predictions with this season’s team anymore, but they have looked a lot better at home. I do think the Dukes will split the season series as I don’t think the Bonnies are that much better overall. Whether they win at home or make it difficult for themselves on the road, I do think the Dukes take one.